During their transition from lower to upper secondary education, young peoplemake educational and occupational choices driven by their aspirations. Such aspirations are shaped by the individuals’ social environment, their idea of what seems achievable and desirable, and their experiences. Therefore, aspirations can change during the transitional phase. In this article, we explore the development of educational and occupational aspirations of young people over three years. At the start of the study period, the students were attending the lower track in lower secondary education, the so‐called Neue Mittelschule (8th grade), in the city of Vienna in the 2017–2018 academic year. Drawing on the panel survey data (2018–2020) of the Pathways to the Future project, we simultaneously explore stability and change of educational and occupational aspirations. We describe different patterns of change in aspirations and analyse the influence of sociodemographic characteristics and prior achievement on these patterns. Using latent transition analysis, we identify 11 patterns of aspirations with important differences depending on social background. Most of the students have stable aspirations. However, the results show that school performance, migration background, and the level of parental education play important roles in explaining different levels and patterns of aspirations over time. These longitudinal analyses of educational and occupational aspirations provide important insights into the transition process.

中文翻译：

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教育和职业抱负：维也纳青年的纵向研究

在从初中到高中的过渡期间，年轻人根据自己的愿望做出教育和职业选择。这种愿望是由个人的社会环境、他们对什么似乎可以实现和渴望的想法以及他们的经历所塑造的。因此，在过渡阶段，愿望可能会发生变化。在本文中，我们探讨了三年来年轻人的教育和职业愿望的发展。在学习期开始时，学生们在 2017-2018 学年在维也纳市参加初中教育的低年级课程，即所谓的 Neue Mittelschule（8 年级）。我们利用“通往未来之路”项目的面板调查数据（2018-2020），同时探索教育和职业愿望的稳定性和变化。我们描述了愿望变化的不同模式，并分析了社会人口特征和先前成就对这些模式的影响。使用潜在转换分析，我们根据社会背景确定了 11 种具有重要差异的愿望模式。大多数学生都有稳定的志向。然而，研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，学校表现、移民背景和父母教育水平在解释不同程度和模式的愿望方面发挥着重要作用。这些对教育和职业抱负的纵向分析为过渡过程提供了重要的见解。我们根据社会背景确定了 11 种具有重要差异的愿望模式。大多数学生都有稳定的志向。然而，研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，学校表现、移民背景和父母教育水平在解释不同程度和模式的愿望方面发挥着重要作用。这些对教育和职业抱负的纵向分析为过渡过程提供了重要的见解。我们根据社会背景确定了 11 种具有重要差异的愿望模式。大多数学生都有稳定的志向。然而，研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，学校表现、移民背景和父母教育水平在解释不同程度和模式的愿望方面发挥着重要作用。这些对教育和职业抱负的纵向分析为过渡过程提供了重要的见解。