Purpose of the study: The understanding of the complex world and the ability to imagine the futures is the basis for planning and decision-making. Therefore, in this research, the possible future of university in an Iranian oil-dependent economy is studied, and, the best direction for higher education in Khuzestan province is explored. — Methodology: A formative scenario writing research method is used in the current study. The participants were recruited from among Iranian higher education experts purposefully; a series of in-depth interviews including personal and focus group interviews have also been conducted to reach saturation. —Main findings: The results of the present research showed that two main factors affect Khuzestan higher education: dependency on the state economy and increasingly growing social expectation from the university. Khuzestan universities have better select one of these orientations: Conservative University, Enabler University, Adaptive University, and Developmental University. According to the findings of the study, developmental orientation is the preferred scenario for Khuzestan higher education. — Applications of this study: It is argued that the developmental university is the preferred scenario for the future of higher education in Khuzestan Province and a proposal suggests its actualization. — Novelty/originality of this study: The applied scenario-based innovative research attempts to reveal the socio-economic role of universities in societies having State-Economy such as Iran, shows all the possible main paths, and finally determines the preferred path for a specific period of time. The current probe can be directly used to lead higher education policymakers of the province and be indirectly employed to help individuals adopt general orientations in higher education, as well as students and researchers who are interested in higher education studies, especially in the field of Higher Education (HE) public policymaking. Finally identified and explained the developmental university that is compatible with Khuzestan higher education situations is another novelty of this research. Received: 29 March 2021Accepted: 21 June 2021

中文翻译：

---

依赖石油的国家经济中的大学：胡齐斯坦高等教育的未来

研究目的：对复杂世界的理解和想象未来的能力是规划和决策的基础。因此，在本研究中，研究了伊朗石油依赖经济体中大学的可能未来，并探索了胡齐斯坦省高等教育的最佳方向。— 方法论：目前的研究使用了一种形成性的情景写作研究方法。参与者是有目的地从伊朗高等教育专家中招募的；还进行了一系列深度访谈，包括个人访谈和焦点小组访谈，以达到饱和。——主要发现：本研究结果表明，影响胡齐斯坦高等教育的两个主要因素：对国家经济的依赖和对大学日益增长的社会期望。胡齐斯坦大学最好选择以下方向之一：保守大学、推动者大学、适应性大学和发展大学。根据研究结果，发展导向是胡齐斯坦高等教育的首选方案。— 本研究的应用：有人认为，发展型大学是胡齐斯坦省高等教育未来的首选方案，一项提案建议将其实现。— 本研究的新颖性/独创性：基于应用场景的创新研究试图揭示大学在伊朗等国家经济社会中的社会经济作用，展示所有可能的主要路径，并最终确定首选路径特定时间段。目前的调查可以直接用于领导全省高等教育决策者，也可以间接用于帮助个人接受高等教育的总体方向，以及对高等教育研究特别是高等教育领域感兴趣的学生和研究人员(HE) 公共政策制定。最后确定并解释了与胡齐斯坦高等教育情况相适应的发展型大学是本研究的另一个新颖之处。收稿日期：2021 年 3 月 29 日接受日期：2021 年 6 月 21 日 最后确定并解释了与胡齐斯坦高等教育情况相适应的发展型大学是本研究的另一个新颖之处。收稿日期：2021 年 3 月 29 日接受日期：2021 年 6 月 21 日 最后确定并解释了与胡齐斯坦高等教育情况相适应的发展型大学是本研究的另一个新颖之处。收稿日期：2021 年 3 月 29 日接受日期：2021 年 6 月 21 日