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Non-Tariff Trade Policy in the Context of Deep Trade Integration: An Ex-Post Gravity Model Application to the EU-South Korea Agreement
East Asian Economic Review Pub Date : 2021-03-31 , DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.1.390
Julia Grübler , Oliver Reiter

Many different approaches and databases have been developed for the evaluation of nontariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper is devoted to the EUSouth Korea agreement, which is the first ‘second-generation’ FTA of the EU, addressing a wide array of non-tariff policies. We review the evolution of NTM types applicable to the EU-South Korea trade relationship and the role of NTMs in ex-ante and ex-post analyses of the agreement. Subsequently a structural gravity model is employed to assess the value added of information on different aspects of FTAs and types of NTMs by evaluating their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea FTA. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the components common in modern deep trade agreements, no additional trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The evolution of NTMs differs considerably across indicators used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. Most specifications point towards a negative effect of bilateral differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.

中文翻译:

深度贸易一体化背景下的非关税贸易政策:对欧韩协议的事后重力模型应用

已经开发了许多不同的方法和数据库来评估非关税措施 (NTM) 和自由贸易协定 (FTA)。本文专门讨论欧盟韩国协议,这是欧盟的第一个“第二代”自由贸易协定,涉及广泛的非关税政策。我们回顾了适用于欧盟-韩国贸易关系的 NTM 类型的演变,以及 NTM 在协议的事前和事后分析中的作用。随后,采用结构重力模型,通过评估其预测欧盟-韩国自由贸易协定贸易影响的能力,评估自由贸易协定不同方面和非关税措施类型的信息附加值。我们的研究结果表明,在考虑现代深度贸易协定中常见组成部分的信息时,欧盟-韩国自由贸易协定没有额外的贸易影响。NTM 的演变在所使用的指标之间存在很大差异,但贸易预测几乎没有受到影响。大多数规范都指向贸易伙伴在世贸组织投诉的贸易技术壁垒 (TBT) 和卫生和植物检疫措施 (SPS) 数量的双边差异的负面影响。
更新日期:2021-03-31
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