The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, signed in November 2020, comes shortly after the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force and the US-China Trade War escalated. We use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the long-term effects of these three developments on income, trade, economic structure, factor returns and employment across the world, and especially in Asia-Pacific countries. The results suggest that RCEP could generate income gains that will be almost twice as large as those of the CPTPP, and that the two agreements together will largely offset the substantial negative effects of the US-China Trade War for the world as a whole. All three policy developments, but especially RCEP, will deepen East Asian production networks and will raise productivity and increase wages and employment in much of East Asia. At the sectoral level, regional trade in non-durable and durable manufactures will experience the most growth.

中文翻译：

---

亚太地区冲突与合作经济学：RCEP、CPTPP与中美贸易战

区域全面经济伙伴关系 (RCEP) 协议于 2020 年 11 月签署，紧随跨太平洋伙伴关系全面进步协议 (CPTPP) 生效和美中贸易战升级后不久。我们使用可计算的一般均衡模型来评估这三个发展对全球收入、贸易、经济结构、要素回报和就业的长期影响，特别是在亚太国家。结果表明，RCEP 产生的收入收益几乎是 CPTPP 的两倍，这两项协议将在很大程度上抵消美中贸易战对整个世界的重大负面影响。所有三项政策发展，尤其是 RCEP，将深化东亚生产网络，提高生产力，增加东亚大部分地区的工资和就业。在部门层面，非耐用品和耐用品的区域贸易增长最快。