Abstract The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes.

中文翻译：

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自适应预警系统：一种公理化的方法

摘要 美国次贷危机和随后的大衰退凸显了人们对正确设计和实施早期预警系统 (EWS) 的新兴趣，以通过实施适当的危机检测机制来帮助阻止随后的极端金融事件的发生. 本文将自适应早期预警系统 (AEWS) 公理化方法描述为 EWS 测试的自然操作扩展。这种新颖的协议支持实施有效的整体危机检测机制的操作维度，这是迄今为止被 EWS 文献忽视的领域。本文首先描述了支持 AEWS 协议的主要公理原则，旨在建立支持该协议的通用原则。第二，本文还描述了 AEWS 监控平台的基本通用模板，该模板适当地描述了如何将多个测试程序集成到一个单一的危机检测框架中，同时针对金融市场的多个细分市场（例如金融市场的常规和非常规细分市场）。金融市场）。第三，本文还描述了与实施这一新协议相关的主要优点和缺点。希望 AEWS 协议作为全球宏观审慎工具包中新的操作框架的有效实施，可能有助于阻止未来极端金融事件的发生，通过增强与 EWS 相关的中央银行程序的凝聚力，