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Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 , DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0014
Nikola Fabris 1 , Milena Lazić 2
Affiliation  

Abstract The subject of this paper is the evaluation of monetary policy reaction function on panel data of 37 world economies, both advanced and emerging markets, during the period of 1995Q1 – 2018Q3. The paper aims to evaluate the role and importance of the exchange rate in monetary policy reaction function depending on the level of economic development. For this purpose, a relevant set of unbalanced panel data was formed with a balanced relationship between developed and emerging market economies. The methodology of empirical research is based on the econometric assessment of monetary policy reaction function within which the central bank adjusts its key policy rate to the dynamics of inflation, output gap and fluctuations of the real effective exchange rate. The research results confirm the hypothesis that the exchange rate represents a statistically significant variable only in the monetary policy reaction function of emerging market economies. In contrast, adequate specification of developed economies’ monetary policy rule includes only standard macroeconomic fundamentals – inflation and output gap.

中文翻译:

评估汇率在发达和新兴市场经济体货币政策反应功能中的作用

摘要 本文的主题是基于 37 个世界经济体(包括发达市场和新兴市场)的面板数据评估 1995 年第一季度至 2018 年第三季度期间的货币政策反应函数。本文旨在根据经济发展水平评估汇率在货币政策反应函数中的作用和重要性。为此,形成了一套相关的不平衡面板数据,发达经济体与新兴市场经济体之间关系平衡。实证研究的方法基于对货币政策反应函数的计量经济学评估,在该函数中,中央银行根据通货膨胀、产出缺口和实际有效汇率波动的动态调整其关键政策利率。研究结果证实了汇率仅在新兴市场经济体的货币政策反应函数中代表统计显着变量的假设。相比之下,发达经济体货币政策规则的充分规范只包括标准的宏观经济基本面——通货膨胀和产出缺口。
更新日期:2022-04-30
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