ABSTRACT

Although there have been several studies on international tourism demand, research on outbound tourism has not received as much attention, especially approaching destinations as a region (group of countries). This paper aims to establish outbound tourism demand modeling and determine the role of factors influencing this model. Using Vietnam’s data from 1995 to 2019, the study focuses on eleven main destination countries divided into three regions, namely Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and intercontinental. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for panel data and robustness tests was deployed and shows that population size and income per capita of the source country are important factors that determine the size of the outbound tourism market. Moreover, traveling abroad remains a luxury service for Vietnamese people, especially to countries in Northeast Asia. Prices also affect outbound tourism demand, but most demand is inelastic by own and cross prices. In addition, the study also pinpoints the competing destinations and complementary destinations for overseas travel trips by Vietnamese people.

摘要

尽管已经有一些关于国际旅游需求的研究，但出境旅游的研究还没有受到足够的重视，特别是针对一个地区（国家集团）的目的地。本文旨在建立出境旅游需求模型并确定影响该模型的因素的作用。该研究利用越南1995年至2019年的数据，重点研究了东南亚、东北亚和洲际三个区域的11个主要目的地国家。采用面板数据自回归分布滞后模型（ADLM）和稳健性检验表明，客源国人口规模和人均收入是决定出境旅游市场规模的重要因素。此外，出国旅游对越南人来说仍然是一种奢侈服务，尤其是东北亚国家。价格也会影响出境旅游需求，但大多数需求因自身价格和交叉价格而缺乏弹性。此外，该研究还指出了越南人海外旅游的竞争目的地和互补目的地。