Climate-generated stress has been linked to multiple socio-political outcomes, many of which are violent. Scarcity is a key mechanism behind these violent outcomes. I argue that climate-induced scarcity creates conditions for organized criminal groups to capture the markets of legal commodities. Scarcity drives prices up, creating incentives for criminal groups to capture the production and distribution of these commodities with pernicious consequences. Using qualitative evidence for the abalone shellfish market in two South African provinces, I trace the process connecting climate-induced scarcity to price changes, to criminal market capture. In doing so, I make three contributions: I propose a new theory about the climate drivers behind the behavior of organized crime by bringing together scholarship on climate and conflict and criminal violence; I extend research on organized crime from markets of illicit goods into markets for licit ones; and I provide evidence suggestive of brokerage as a specific mechanism to illegally control a market.

气候产生的压力与多种社会政治结果有关，其中许多是暴力的。稀缺性是这些暴力结果背后的关键机制。我认为，气候导致的稀缺性为有组织的犯罪集团占领合法商品市场创造了条件。稀缺性推高价格，促使犯罪集团获取这些商品的生产和分销，并带来有害后果。使用南非两个省份鲍鱼贝类市场的定性证据，我追踪了将气候引起的稀缺与价格变化以及犯罪市场捕获联系起来的过程。在此过程中，我做出了三项贡献：我提出了一个关于有组织犯罪行为背后的气候驱动因素的新理论，汇集了关于气候、冲突和犯罪暴力的学术研究；我将对有组织犯罪的研究从非法商品市场扩展到合法商品市场；我提供的证据表明经纪业务是非法控制市场的一种特定机制。