Fossil fuel subsidies are a market distortion commonly identified as an obstacle to decarbonization. Yet due to trenchant political economic risks, reform attempts can be fraught for governments. Despite these concerns, an institutionally and economically diverse group of states included references to fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) under the Paris Agreement. What conditions might explain why some states reference politically risky reforms within treaty commitments, while most others would not? We argue that the Article 4 process under the Paris Agreement creates a “credibility dilemma” for states–articulating ambitious emissions reduction targets while also defining national climate plans engenders a need to seek out appropriate policy ideas that can justify overarching goals to international audiences. Insomuch as particular norms are institutionalized and made salient in international politics, a window of opportunity is opened: issue advocates can “activate” norms by demonstrating how related policies can make commitments credible. Using mixed methods, we find support for this argument. We identify contextual factors advancing FFSR in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, including norm institutionalization in regimes and international organization programs as well as salience-boosting climate diplomacy. Further, we find correspondences between countries targeted by transnational policy advocates and FFSR references in INDCs, building on the momentum in international politics more generally. Though drafting INDCs and NDCs is a government-owned process, the results suggest that understanding their content requires examining international norms alongside domestic circumstances.

化石燃料补贴是一种市场扭曲，通常被认为是脱碳的障碍。然而，由于尖锐的政治经济风险，政府的改革尝试可能充满挑战。尽管存在这些担忧，但在制度和经济上各不相同的国家集团在《巴黎协定》下的国家自主贡献预案 (INDC) 中提及了化石燃料补贴改革 (FFSR)。什么条件可以解释为什么一些国家在条约承诺中提到具有政治风险的改革，而大多数其他人不会？我们认为，《巴黎协定》下的第 4 条进程为各国制造了“信誉困境”——在制定雄心勃勃的减排目标的同时还定义了国家气候计划，因此需要寻求适当的政策理念，以向国际观众证明总体目标的合理性。由于特定规范被制度化并在国际政治中变得突出，机会之窗打开了：问题倡导者可以通过展示相关政策如何使承诺可信来“激活”规范。使用混合方法，我们找到了对这一论点的支持。我们确定了在达成《巴黎协定》之前推进 FFSR 的背景因素，包括制度和国际组织计划中的规范制度化以及促进气候外交的显着性。此外，我们发现跨国政策倡导者所针对的国家与国家自主贡献中的 FFSR 参考之间存在对应关系，更广泛地建立在国际政治的势头之上。尽管起草 INDC 和 NDC 是政府主导的过程，但结果表明，理解其内容需要结合国内情况审查国际规范。