This research examines whether an alternative exchange rate policy could have mitigated Germany’s recession from April 1930 to May 1932, when Heinrich Brüning was Reichskanzler of the Weimar Republic. Using an open-economy dynamic model as our analytical framework, we examine the arguments against adopting the devaluation policy. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a widely held belief—that floating the Reichsmark would have led to high inflation—is unwarranted. Despite Germany’s high foreign debt, floating the Reichsmark would have led to less of a decline in both real GDP and employment for the country during the Great Depression.

本研究考察了替代汇率政策是否可以缓解德国在 1930 年 4 月至 1932 年 5 月期间的经济衰退，当时海因里希·布吕​​宁 (Heinrich Brüning) 是魏玛共和国的执政官。使用开放经济动态模型作为我们的分析框架，我们研究了反对采用贬值政策的论点。我们的反事实分析表明，一种普遍持有的信念——即浮动帝国马克会导致高通胀——是没有根据的。尽管德国的外债很高，但在大萧条期间，浮动德国马克会导致该国实际 GDP 和就业的下降幅度较小。