Abstract

This research addresses whether reductions in formal labor market contact over time lead to heightened recidivism risk among the formerly incarcerated. To address this question, this research draws on a sample of 2,050 Ohio ex-prisoners. First, using group-based trajectory modeling, subjects are categorized into four distinct categories of employment stability, reflecting longitudinal trajectories of formal labor market contact. Then, event-history analysis is used to empirically assess the implications of declining contact with the formal labor market on recidivism risk. Results demonstrate that (1) the recidivism risk of subjects with declining employment stability diverges substantially from the recidivism risk of subjects with high stability over time, (2) the recidivism risk of subjects with declining stability converges with the recidivism risk of subjects with low stability or no employment over time, and (3) heightened recidivism risk among subjects with declining stability occurs contemporaneously to reductions in formal labor market contact. Thus, this research provides novel evidence that dislocation from the formal labor market over time heightens recidivism risk among the formerly incarcerated and suggests that employment-based reentry programming may need to increasingly focus on helping the formerly maintain employment over longer periods of time.

摘要

这项研究探讨了随着时间的推移，正式劳动力市场接触的减少是否会导致以前被监禁的人的再犯风险增加。为了解决这个问题，这项研究以 2,050 名俄亥俄州前囚犯为样本。首先，使用基于群体的轨迹建模，将受试者分为四个不同的就业稳定性类别，反映正式劳动力市场接触的纵向轨迹。然后，事件历史分析用于实证评估与正规劳动力市场接触减少对累犯风险的影响。结果表明（1）就业稳定性下降的受试者的累犯风险与长期稳定性高的受试者的累犯风险存在显着差异，（2）随着时间的推移，稳定性下降的受试者的再犯风险与稳定性低或没有就业的受试者的再犯风险趋于一致，并且（3）稳定性下降的受试者的再犯风险升高与正式劳动力市场接触的减少同时发生。因此，这项研究提供了新的证据，表明随着时间的推移，正式劳动力市场的错位会增加以前被监禁的人的累犯风险，并表明基于就业的再入计划可能需要越来越多地专注于帮助以前的人在更长的时间内维持就业。