The Allais paradox constitutes a central violation of the expected utility paradigm. The paradox is typically explained by subjective probability weighing, and has motivated and shaped the leading non-expected-utility models. But why do people weigh probabilities? We suggest a new explanation for the Allais paradox based on evolutionary theory. We show that the evolutionary goal of maximizing the probability of having descendants forever (i.e. minimizing the probability of eventual extinction) predicts the Allais paradox and the common-consequence and common-ratio effects, and thus provides a rational-expectations theoretical foundation for the experimentally observed behavior.

Allais 悖论严重违反了预期效用范式。这个悖论通常通过主观概率加权来解释，并激发并塑造了领先的非预期效用模型。但人们为什么要权衡概率？我们建议基于进化论的阿莱悖论的新解释。我们证明了最大化永远拥有后代的概率（即最小化最终灭绝的概率）的进化目标预测了阿莱悖论以及共同后果和共同比率效应，从而为实验研究提供了理性预期的理论基础。观察到的行为。