The identification of key determinants of aid effectiveness is a long-standing question in the development community. This paper reviews the literature on aid effectiveness at the project level and then extends the inquiry in a variety of dimensions with new data on World Bank investment project financing. It confirms that the country institutional setting and quality of project supervision are associated with project success, as identified previously. However, many aspects of the development project cycle, especially project design, have been difficult to measure and therefore under-investigated. The paper finds that project design, as proxied by the estimated value added of design staff, the presence of prior analytic work, and other specially collected measures, is a significant predictor of ultimate project success. These factors generally grow in predictive importance as the income level of the country rises. The results also indicate that a key determinant of the staff's contribution is their experience with previous World Bank projects, but not other characteristics such as age, education, or country location. Key inputs to the project production process associated with subsequent performance are not captured in routine data systems, although it is feasible to do so. Further, the conceptualization and measurement of the success of project-based aid should be revisited by evaluative bodies to reflect a project's theorized contribution to development outcomes.

中文翻译：

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缺少碎片的谜题：解释世界银行发展项目的有效性

确定援助有效性的关键决定因素是发展界长期存在的问题。本文回顾了有关项目层面援助有效性的文献，然后利用有关世界银行投资项目融资的新数据，将研究扩展到多个维度。如前所述，它证实了国家机构设置和项目监督质量与项目成功相关。然而，开发项目周期的许多方面，尤其是项目设计，一直难以衡量，因此研究不足。论文发现，以设计人员的估计附加值、先前的分析工作和其他特别收集的措施为代表的项目设计是项目最终成功的重要预测因素。随着国家收入水平的提高，这些因素的预测重要性通常会增加。结果还表明，工作人员贡献的一个关键决定因素是他们在以前的世界银行项目中的经验，而不是年龄、教育或国家位置等其他特征。与后续绩效相关的项目生产过程的关键输入并未包含在常规数据系统中，尽管这样做是可行的。此外，评估机构应重新审视基于项目的援助成功与否的概念化和衡量，以反映项目对发展成果的理论贡献。他们的贡献是他们在以前的世界银行项目中的经验，而不是年龄、教育或国家位置等其他特征。与后续绩效相关的项目生产过程的关键输入并未包含在常规数据系统中，尽管这样做是可行的。此外，评估机构应重新审视基于项目的援助成功与否的概念化和衡量，以反映项目对发展成果的理论贡献。他们的贡献是他们在以前的世界银行项目中的经验，而不是年龄、教育或国家位置等其他特征。与后续绩效相关的项目生产过程的关键输入并未包含在常规数据系统中，尽管这样做是可行的。此外，评估机构应重新审视基于项目的援助成功与否的概念化和衡量，以反映项目对发展成果的理论贡献。