ABSTRACT

In January 2011, flooding of historic proportions hit the Australian city of Brisbane causing one death. Understanding the decisions made on dam operation in response to intense rainfall is crucial for preventing such disasters or at least, minimising risk in the future. This article reports on an analysis of 345 legal transcripts conducted during the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (QFCI) revealing a subjective process of decision-making, akin to bricolage, with a distinctly complex and emergent quality to the formation of mitigation strategies during one of the city’s worst natural disasters on record. The main contribution of this article is how complexity theory, uniquely connected to the concept of emergent strategy formation, can be applied to complex disaster situations. There has been limited research on how problems require a flexible and adaptable process to manage the cascading patterns of emergent crises. The article proposes future research related to understanding emergent patterns and the management of complexity in organisations.

摘要

2011 年 1 月，历史性洪水袭击了澳大利亚城市布里斯班，造成 1 人死亡。了解为应对强降雨而做出的大坝运营决策对于预防此类灾害或至少将未来风险降至最低至关重要。本文报告了对昆士兰洪水调查委员会 (QFCI) 期间进行的 345 份法律记录的分析，揭示了一个类似于拼凑的主观决策过程，其中一个缓解战略的形成具有明显复杂和紧急的质量。该市有记录以来最严重的自然灾害。本文的主要贡献是复杂性理论如何与紧急战略形成的概念独特地联系起来，可以应用于复杂的灾难情况。关于问题如何需要灵活和适应性强的过程来管理紧急危机的级联模式的研究有限。本文提出了与理解紧急模式和组织复杂性管理相关的未来研究。