Policymakers have been debating for over a decade whether Asia is decoupling from the USA. Increasingly, deepening regional integration is cited as a possible driver of this decoupling. Using large Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions, estimated over different subperiods, we jointly examine bilateral macro-financial interdependencies between Asia Pacific countries and between each Asia Pacific country and the USA. We uncover no evidence of decoupling. Instead, we find that both global and regional interdependencies deepened following the Asian financial crisis, before receding after the Global financial crisis. We also show that while US shocks are important, attention should also be devoted to regional shocks which play a large role in Asia Pacific countries across all subperiods considered. Our results also suggest that there have been shifts in the relative importance of different transmission channels over time. Following the Asian financial crisis, as regional interdependencies deepened, US financial shocks began to play a larger role than US macroeconomic shocks. These results support the view that rising intra-regional trade contributed to a fall in the importance of US macroeconomic shocks. They are also consistent with research suggesting that strong, common global financial linkages increase the synchronization of Asian regional business cycles.

十多年来，政策制定者一直在争论亚洲是否正在与美国脱钩。越来越多的深化区域一体化被认为是这种脱钩的一个可能驱动因素。使用在不同子时期估计的大型贝叶斯面板向量自回归，我们联合检查了亚太国家之间以及每个亚太国家与美国之间的双边宏观金融相互依存关系。我们没有发现任何脱钩的证据。相反，我们发现全球和区域的相互依存在亚洲金融危机之后加深，然后在全球金融危机之后消退。我们还表明，虽然美国的冲击很重要，但也应关注区域冲击，这些冲击在所考虑的所有子时期在亚太国家都发挥着重要作用。我们的研究结果还表明，随着时间的推移，不同传输渠道的相对重要性发生了变化。亚洲金融危机之后，随着地区相互依存度的加深，美国金融冲击开始比美国宏观经济冲击发挥更大的作用。这些结果支持这样一种观点，即区域内贸易的增加导致美国宏观经济冲击的重要性下降。它们也与研究表明，强大的、共同的全球金融联系增加了亚洲区域商业周期的同步性。这些结果支持这样一种观点，即区域内贸易的增加导致美国宏观经济冲击的重要性下降。它们也与研究表明，强大的、共同的全球金融联系增加了亚洲区域商业周期的同步性。这些结果支持这样一种观点，即区域内贸易的增加导致美国宏观经济冲击的重要性下降。它们也与研究表明，强大的、共同的全球金融联系增加了亚洲区域商业周期的同步性。