Predicted stock issuers (PSIs) are firms with expected high-investment and low-profit profiles that earn extremely low returns. We evaluate alternative explanations for this empirical phenomenon. Our results show top-PSI firms are cash-strapped, have lottery-like payoffs, high volatility, high beta, low liquidity, and high shorting costs. Over the next 2 years, top-PSI firms earn return on assets of − 30% per year, report disappointing earnings, and experience strongly negative forecast revisions. They perform poorly in down markets and are six times more likely to delist for performance-related reasons. Overall, we find substantial support for mispricing, some support for nonstandard preferences, and virtually no support for the risk explanation.

中文翻译：

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为什么预测的股票发行人收益低？

预测的股票发行人 (PSI) 是预期高投资和低利润的公司，其回报极低。我们评估这种经验现象的替代解释。我们的结果表明，顶级 PSI 公司资金紧张，收益类似于彩票，波动性高，贝塔系数高，流动性低，做空成本高。在接下来的 2 年中，顶级 PSI 公司每年的资产回报率为 - 30%，报告令人失望的收益，并经历了强烈的负面预测修正。它们在低迷的市场中表现不佳，并且由于与业绩相关的原因而退市的可能性是其六倍。总体而言，我们发现大量支持错误定价，一些支持非标准偏好，几乎不支持风险解释。