We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After explaining the mechanical cause for this divergence, we estimate that, if past relationships hold, the residential inflation components of the CPI and PCE are likely to move close to seven percent during 2022. These findings imply that housing will make a significant contribution to overall inflation in 2022, ranging from one percentage point for headline PCE, to 2.6 percentage points for core CPI. We expect residential inflation to remain elevated in 2023.

中文翻译：

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住宅通胀即将上升

我们研究了近期住房和租金价格的上涨如何影响美国的通胀前景。住房在 2021 年抑制了总体通胀。尽管基于私人市场的房价和租金指标出现创纪录的增长，但在截至 2022 年 1 月的 12 个月中，政府衡量的住宅服务通胀仅为 4%。在解释了这种差异的机械原因后，我们估计，如果过去的关系成立，2022 年 CPI 和 PCE 的住宅通胀成分可能会接近 7%。这些发现表明，住房将在 2022 年对整体通胀做出重大贡献，幅度为 1 个百分点总体 PCE 为核心 CPI 的 2.6 个百分点。我们预计 2023 年住宅通胀将保持高位。