We investigate the impact of abnormal credit expansion and contraction on the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (CGDP) of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. We analyse abnormal credit from two dimensions: first, the impact of abnormal credit contraction on CGDP and, second, the impact of abnormal credit expansion on CGDP. Using data for 10 ECOWAS countries from 1993 to 2021, we find evidence that abnormal credit contraction reduces the CGDP of ECOWAS countries. We also find some evidence that abnormal credit expansion reduces the CGDP of ECOWAS countries. More specifically, a unit increase in abnormal credit contraction decreases CGDP by 0.99%, whereas a unit increase in abnormal credit expansion decreases CGDP by only 0.1%. The findings confirm that ‘too little’ or ‘too much’ credit does not improve growth per person in immature financial systems. We also observe that banking sector solvency and a strong legal system have a positive effect on the CGDP of ECOWAS countries, while banking sector efficiency has a negative effect on CGDP.

中文翻译：

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异常信贷扩张和收缩对西非经共体国家人均GDP的影响

我们调查了异常信贷扩张和收缩对西非国家经济共同体（ECOWAS）国家人均国内生产总值（GDP）的影响。我们从两个维度分析异常信贷：一是异常信贷收缩对CGDP的影响，二是异常信贷扩张对CGDP的影响。使用 10 个西非经共体国家从 1993 年到 2021 年的数据，我们发现异常信贷收缩降低了西非经共体国家的 CGDP 的证据。我们还发现一些证据表明异常信贷扩张会降低西非经共体国家的 CGDP。更具体地说，异常信贷收缩增加一个单位会使 CGDP 下降 0.99%，而异常信贷扩张增加一个单位会使 CGDP 下降 0.1%。研究结果证实，在不成熟的金融体系中，“太少”或“太多”信贷并不能改善人均增长。我们还观察到银行业偿付能力和强大的法律体系对西非经共体国家的 CGDP 有积极影响，而银行业效率对 CGDP 有负面影响。