Accelerated warming of the Arctic has reduced sea ice and has increased the occurrence of winter extreme events like rain-on-snow and storms that impact snow-cover densification, affecting Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) seasonal movements and grazing conditions. We used caribou movements between Banks, Melville and Victoria islands and mainland Canada, documented from Indigenous Knowledge, to assess whether spatiotemporal trends in sea-ice anomalies (1983–2019) can be used as an indicator of caribou movement. We used the SNOWPACK model to evaluate how foraging conditions (as indexed by simulated snow properties) contribute to the prediction of caribou presence. Our results suggest that changes in sea-ice anomalies over time have impacted caribou crossings between islands: caribou no longer use areas with less sea ice whilst they continue to use areas with more sea ice. Our model evaluation shows that, when the simulated snow conditions are paired with other environmental variables, the ability of models to predict Peary caribou occurrence on land was enhanced across Banks and Melville islands. Overall, the land models suggest that caribou are more likely to occupy areas with lower density of snow accumulation and a majority of forb tundra with dwarf shrubs for Banks Island and cryptogam tundra, rush and grass for the Melville Island Complex. Our results suggest that future work monitoring changes in sea-ice and snow conditions will be important for understanding the impact of climate change on the distribution of Peary caribou in the western Arctic.

北极的加速变暖减少了海冰，增加了冬季极端事件的发生率，例如影响积雪致密化的暴雨和暴风雪，影响了北美驯鹿 ( Rangifer tarandus pearyi)) 季节性运动和放牧条件。我们使用银行、梅尔维尔和维多利亚群岛以及加拿大大陆之间的驯鹿运动（根据土著知识记录）来评估海冰异常（1983-2019 年）的时空趋势是否可以用作驯鹿运动的指标。我们使用 SNOWPACK 模型来评估觅食条件（由模拟雪特性索引）如何有助于预测驯鹿的存在。我们的研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，海冰异常的变化影响了驯鹿在岛屿之间的穿越：驯鹿不再使用海冰较少的地区，而继续使用海冰较多的地区。我们的模型评估表明，当模拟雪况与其他环境变量配对时，在班克斯和梅尔维尔群岛，模型预测陆地上皮里驯鹿发生的能力得到了增强。总体而言，土地模型表明，驯鹿更有可能占据积雪密度较低的区域，并且在班克斯岛（Banks Island）和大多数带有矮灌木的森林苔原和梅尔维尔岛综合体（Melville Island Complex）的隐花苔原、灯心草和草丛中占据大部分地区。我们的研究结果表明，未来监测海冰和雪情变化的工作对于了解气候变化对北极西部皮里驯鹿分布的影响具有重要意义。梅尔维尔岛综合体的匆忙和草地。我们的研究结果表明，未来监测海冰和雪情变化的工作对于了解气候变化对北极西部皮里驯鹿分布的影响具有重要意义。梅尔维尔岛综合体的匆忙和草地。我们的研究结果表明，未来监测海冰和雪情变化的工作对于了解气候变化对北极西部皮里驯鹿分布的影响具有重要意义。