We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of long-term sovereign-bond purchases by the central bank in an economy that is likely to be characterized by a low equilibrium real interest rate and a non-negligible probability of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the monetary-policy rate. Our analysis is based on simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model for the euro area. The main results are the following. First, long-term sovereign-bond purchases reacting to a positive inflation gap help stabilize macroeconomic conditions when the monetary-policy rate hits the ZLB. Second, these purchases are an effective stabilization tool following positive shocks to the sovereign term premium and negative shocks to aggregate demand. Third, to stabilize the effects of expansionary demand shocks, the central bank can increase the monetary-policy rate according to an ‘aggressive’ Taylor rule, instead of selling long-term sovereign bonds.

中文翻译：

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非常时期的非常规货币政策措施

我们评估了中央银行在一个经济体中购买长期主权债券的宏观经济影响，该经济体的特点可能是低均衡实际利率和触及零利率下限 (ZLB) 的概率不可忽略货币政策利率。我们的分析基于对欧元区动态一般均衡模型的模拟。主要结果如下。首先，当货币政策利率触及 ZLB 时，针对正通胀缺口的长期主权债券购买有助于稳定宏观经济状况。其次，在主权期限溢价受到正面冲击和总需求受到负面冲击之后，这些购买是一种有效的稳定工具。第三，为了稳定扩张性需求冲击的影响，