This paper shows that, first, the effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield in India are highly asymmetric: yield falls strongly after droughts, whereas excessive rainfall has only little effects. Second, our key novel finding is that the short-lived yield loss after a widespread drought elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices), which lasts for up to five years. Third, affiliation to the same National Sample Survey region (and thus to the same state) seems to be a key determinant of internal migration, whereas distance appears more relevant for food arbitrage trading.

中文翻译：

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季风降雨冲击对印度农业产量、工资和食品价格的动态影响*

本文表明，首先，季风降雨冲击对印度农业产量的影响是高度不对称的：干旱后产量大幅下降，而过量降雨的影响却很小。其次，我们的关键新发现是，大范围干旱后短暂的产量损失会导致工资（食品价格）持续下降（上涨），这种情况可持续长达五年。第三，属于同一国家抽样调查区域（因此属于同一州）似乎是内部移民的关键决定因素，而距离似乎与食品套利交易更相关。