By analyzing a new dataset of terms of trade covering the whole world during the “first globalization” (1800–1913), this article finds that trends of terms of trade varied significantly, both within the periphery and the core, and were mainly driven by import prices. Volatility declined because price spikes became less frequent and export prices became increasingly stable. We find little evidence of de-industrialization. Consistent with our trends, prices of primary products, similarly to those of manufactures, were falling and so was their volatility. These results sit uneasily with the view that terms of trade played a crucial role in holding back the development of peripheral countries before World War I.

中文翻译：

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第一次全球化期间的贸易条件：新证据、新成果

本文通过分析“第一次全球化”（1800-1913）期间覆盖全球的新贸易条件数据集，发现贸易条件趋势在外围和核心地区都存在显着差异，主要受以下因素驱动：进口价格。波动性下降是因为价格飙升的频率变得不那么频繁，出口价格变得越来越稳定。我们几乎没有发现去工业化的证据。与我们的趋势一致，初级产品的价格（与制成品的价格类似）正在下降，其波动性也在下降。这些结果与第一次世界大战前贸易条件在阻碍周边国家发展方面发挥关键作用的观点不符。