ABSTRACT

The share of renewable energy is expected to increase in South Africa’s energy mix. Motivated by concerns about renewable energy sprawl, this study quantifies the current and future (2050) land requirements for electricity generation in South Africa and evaluates the likely impact on natural biomes. Currently, around 340 km² has been transformed for electricity generation (mainly coal-powered) and an additional 1 400 km² is used for spacing requirements. Direct land use is expected to increase to 755–1080 km² by 2050, and spacing requirements will increase to 10 700–16 750 km² (0.9–1.4% of South Africa’s land area). South Africa has excellent potential for renewable energy generation, with 36% and 57% of the land area being suitable for solar and wind development, respectively. Assuming that future developments are built on the most suitable land in the Renewable Energy Development Zones, the Nama-Karoo Biome will be most affected. It is concluded that concerns about renewable energy sprawl should not limit South Africa’s renewable energy capacity expansion plans.

摘要

可再生能源在南非能源结构中的份额预计将增加。出于对可再生能源蔓延的担忧，这项研究量化了南非当前和未来（2050 年）发电的土地需求，并评估了对自然生物群落可能产生的影响。目前，约340 km ²已改造用于发电（主要是煤电），另有1 400 km ²用于满足间距要求。预计到 2050 年，直接土地利用面积将增加到 755–1080 km ²，间距要求将增加到 10 700–16 750 km ²（占南非土地面积的 0.9–1.4%）。南非在可再生能源发电方面具有巨大潜力，分别有36%和57%的土地面积适合开发太阳能和风能。假设未来的开发建设在可再生能源开发区最合适的土地上，那么纳马-卡鲁生物群落将受到最大的影响。结论是，对可再生能源蔓延的担忧不应限制南非的可再生能源产能扩张计划。