The purpose of this article is to investigate the average treatment effect of hard pegs. The innovation of the paper is to control for the sample selection bias. Using the unbalanced panel data of non-industrial countries, we find that, compared with non-hard-peg countries, hard-peg countries have significantly lower inflation, inflation volatility, output growth, and trade growth but have higher output growth volatility. For industrial countries, we find that the results are similar to those of non-industrial countries, except that hard pegs do not significantly reduce inflation and inflation volatility. Based on all countries, the treatment effect of hard pegs is qualitatively similar to those obtained from non-industrial countries. These results are robust to different matching methods.

本文的目的是研究硬钉的平均处理效果。论文的创新之处在于对样本选择偏差的控制。利用非工业国家的不平衡面板数据，我们发现，与非硬挂钩国家相比，硬挂钩国家的通胀、通胀波动、产出增长和贸易增长明显较低，但产出增长波动较大。对于工业国家，我们发现结果与非工业国家相似，只是硬钉住并不能显着降低通胀和通胀波动。基于所有国家，硬钉的治疗效果在质量上与非工业国家相似。这些结果对不同的匹配方法是稳健的。