Purpose

Change of climate is attributed to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere observed over comparable periods. The purpose of this paper is to explore smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change and compare it with meteorological data, as well as to identify perceived adaptation barriers and examine the factors that influence the choice of adaptation options in eastern Ethiopia.

Design/methodology/approach

In total, 384 sample households were chosen from four districts of the zone. A cross-sectional survey was used to conduct the study. Primary data was acquired through key informant interviews, focus group discussions and semistructured interviews, whereas meteorological data was collected from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia. A Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze temperature and rainfall trends over 33 years. A multivariate probit (MVP) model was used to identify the determinants of farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies.

Findings

The result indicated that temperature was significantly increased, whereas rainfall was significantly reduced over the time span of 33 years. This change in climate over time was consistently perceived by farmers. Smallholder farmers use improved varieties of crops, crop diversification, adjusting planting dates, soil and water conservation practices, reducing livestock holdings, planting trees and small-scale irrigation adaptation strategies. Moreover, this study indicated that sex of the household head, landholding size, livestock ownership, access to extension, access to credit, social capital, market distance, access to climate change-related training, nonfarm income, agroecological setting and poverty status of the households significantly influence farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies.

Research limitations/implications

Further research is required to evaluate the economic impact of each adaptation options on the livelihood of smallholder farmers.

Practical implications

Institutional variables significantly influenced how farmers adapted to climate change, and all of these issues might potentially be addressed by improving institutional service delivery. To improve farm-level adaptation, local authorities are recommended to investigate the institutional service provision system while also taking demographic and agroecological factors in to account.

Originality/value

This study compared farmers' perceptions with temperature and rainfall trend analysis, which has been rarely addressed by other studies. This study adopts an MVP model and indicated the adaptation strategies that complement/substitute strategies each other. Furthermore, this study discovered that the choice of adaptation options differed between poor and nonpoor households, which has been overlooked in previous climate change adaptation research.

中文翻译：

---

埃塞俄比亚东部东哈拉格地区小农对气候变化的认知和适应策略的选择

目的

气候变化归因于人类活动改变了在可比时期观察到的全球大气的成分。本文的目的是探讨小农对气候变化的看法并将其与气象数据进行比较，以及确定感知到的适应障碍并研究影响埃塞俄比亚东部适应方案选择的因素。

设计/方法论/途径

总共从该开发区的四个区抽取了 384 户样本户。这项研究采用横断面调查的方式进行。主要数据是通过关键知情人访谈、焦点小组讨论和半结构化访谈获得的，而气象数据则是从埃塞俄比亚国家气象局收集的。使用 Mann-Kendall 统计检验来分析 33 年来的温度和降雨趋势。使用多元概率（MVP）模型来确定农民选择气候变化适应策略的决定因素。

发现

结果表明，在33年的时间里，气温显着升高，而降雨量显着减少。农民们一致认识到这种气候随时间的变化。小农采用改良作物品种、作物多样化、调整种植日期、水土保持做法、减少牲畜饲养、植树和小规模灌溉适应策略。此外，这项研究还表明，家庭户主的性别、土地拥有规模、牲畜拥有量、获得推广的机会、获得信贷的机会、社会资本、市场距离、获得气候变化相关培训的机会、非农收入、农业生态环境和贫困状况。家庭对农民适应策略的选择有显着影响。

研究局限性/影响

需要进一步研究来评估每种适应方案对小农生计的经济影响。

实际影响

制度变量显着影响农民如何适应气候变化，所有这些问题都可能通过改善制度服务提供来解决。为了改善农场层面的适应，建议地方当局调查机构服务提供系统，同时考虑人口和农业生态因素。

原创性/价值

这项研究将农民的看法与温度和降雨趋势分析进行了比较，其他研究很少涉及这一点。本研究采用MVP模型并指出了相互补充/替代的适应策略。此外，本研究还发现，贫困家庭和非贫困家庭在适应方案的选择上存在差异，而这一点在以往的气候变化适应研究中被忽视了。