ABSTRACT

We re-examine the tourism-growth relationship to interrogate the role of the exchange rate as a future driver of the nexus. Using quarterly data on Sri Lanka from 1995 to 2018, preliminary tests reveal a long-run association among economic growth, tourism expenditures and the official exchange rate. Conclusions drawn from the linear models suggest that a percentage change in tourism expenditures contributes to an increase (between 0.46% and 0.52%) in growth. Likewise, the interaction with the exchange rate improves economic growth more so at the conditional distribution of economic growth (50th and 75th quartile). Additional evidence from the margin plot reveals that the effect of tourism on economic growth is positive as the Sri Lankan Rupee depreciates. From the non-linear models, the influence of the exchange rate improves the net effect of tourism on growth. These are novel contributions to the literature as it suggests that currency depreciation in Sri Lanka is pro-growth. Policy recommendations are discussed.

摘要

我们重新审视了旅游业与增长的关系，以探讨汇率作为未来驱动因素的作用。使用 1995 年至 2018 年斯里兰卡的季度数据，初步测试显示经济增长、旅游支出和官方汇率之间存在长期关联。从线性模型得出的结论表明，旅游支出的百分比变化有助于增长（在 0.46% 和 0.52% 之间）。同样，在经济增长的条件分布（第 50 和第 75 个四分位数）下，与汇率的相互作用更能促进经济增长。边际图的其他证据表明，旅游业对经济增长的影响是正的，因为斯里兰卡卢比贬值。从非线性模型来看，汇率的影响提高了旅游业对增长的净效应。这些都是对文献的新颖贡献，因为它表明斯里兰卡的货币贬值有利于增长。政策建议进行了讨论。