ABSTRACT

The rapid growth of renewable electricity generation in Australia raises the prospect of substituting for all fossil fuel use, including their use in transport and heating, by 2050 or even 2040. This article uses simple scenarios to identify the combinations of trends in total final energy consumption and renewable energy generation that together could result in the complete substitution of renewable energy for fossil fuels for energy generation by 2040 and 2050. It finds that, at current or increasing levels of energy consumption, in the absence of substantial CO₂ removal, it is very unlikely that renewable energy could substitute for all fossil energy consumption by 2040 and 2050, even if renewable energy grows exponentially. Because time is of the essence in addressing the climate crisis, energy consumption must be reduced substantially while transitioning to renewables.

摘要

澳大利亚可再生能源发电的快速增长提高了到 2050 年甚至 2040 年替代所有化石燃料使用的前景，包括在运输和供暖中的使用。本文使用简单的情景来确定最终能源消耗总量的趋势组合到 2040 年和 2050 年，可再生能源发电完全替代化石燃料来发电。研究发现，在当前或不断增加的能源消耗水平下，在没有大量 CO _{2的情况下}即使可再生能源呈指数增长，到 2040 年和 2050 年，可再生能源也不太可能替代所有化石能源消耗。由于时间对于解决气候危机至关重要，因此必须在向可再生能源过渡的同时大幅减少能源消耗。