Mangroves are an essential plant community in coastal ecosystems. While the importance of mangrove ecosystems is well acknowledged, climate change is expected to have a considerable negative impact on them, especially in terms of temperature, precipitation, sea level rise (SLR), ocean currents, and increasing storminess. Sri Lanka ranks near the bottom of the list of countries researching this problem, even though the scientific community's interest in examining the variation in mangrove health in response to climate change has gained significant attention. Consequently, this study illustrates how the leaf area index, a measure of mangrove health, fluctuates in response to varying precipitation, particularly during droughts in Sri Lanka's Kadolkele mangrove forest. The measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to produce the leaf area index (LAI), which was then combined with the standard precipitation index (SPI) to estimate the health of the mangroves. The climate scenario, RCP8.5, was used to forecast future SPI (2021–2100), and LAI was modeled under the observed (1991–2019) and expected (2021–2100) drought events. The study reveals that the forecasted drought intensities modeled using the RCP8.5 scenario have no significant variations on LAI, even though some severe and extreme drought conditions exist. Nevertheless, the health of the mangrove ecosystem is predicted to deteriorate under drought conditions and rebound when drought intensity decreases. The extreme drought state (-2.05) was identified in 2064; therefore, LAI has showcased its lowest (0.04). LAI and SPI are projected to gradually increase from 2064 to 2100, while high fluctuations are observed from 2021 to 2064. Limited availability of LAI values with required details (measured date, time, and sample locations) and cloud-free Landsat images have affected the study results. This research presents a comprehensive understanding of Kadolkele mangrove forest under future droughts; thus, alarming relevant authorities to develop management plans to safeguard these critical ecosystems.

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气候变化下叶面积指数（LAI）的变化：斯里兰卡卡多克勒红树林

红树林是沿海生态系统中必不可少的植物群落。虽然红树林生态系统的重要性已广为人知，但预计气候变化将对它们产生相当大的负面影响，特别是在温度、降水、海平面上升 (SLR)、洋流和风暴增加方面。斯里兰卡在研究这个问题的国家名单中几乎排在最后，尽管科学界对研究红树林健康因气候变化而变化的兴趣已经引起了极大的关注。因此，本研究说明了衡量红树林健康状况的叶面积指数如何随着降水的变化而波动，尤其是在斯里兰卡卡多克莱红树林的干旱期间。标准化差异植被指数 (NDVI) 的测量值用于生成叶面积指数 (LAI)，然后将其与标准降水指数 (SPI) 相结合来估计红树林的健康状况。气候情景 RCP8.5 用于预测未来的 SPI（2021-2100 年），LAI 在观测到的（1991-2019 年）和预期的（2021-2100 年）干旱事件下建模。该研究表明，使用 RCP8.5 情景建模的预测干旱强度在 LAI 上没有显着变化，即使存在一些严重和极端的干旱条件。尽管如此，预计红树林生态系统的健康状况将在干旱条件下恶化，并在干旱强度降低时反弹。2064年确定了极端干旱状态（-2.05）；因此，LAI 显示出最低值（0.04）。LAI 和 SPI 预计将从 2064 年到 2100 年逐渐增加，而从 2021 年到 2064 年观察到高波动。具有所需细节（测量日期、时间和样本位置）的 LAI 值的有限可用性和无云的陆地卫星图像影响了研究结果。本研究全面了解未来干旱下的卡多克勒红树林；因此，提醒有关当局制定管理计划以保护这些关键生态系统。本研究全面了解未来干旱下的卡多克勒红树林；因此，提醒有关当局制定管理计划以保护这些关键生态系统。本研究全面了解未来干旱下的卡多克勒红树林；因此，提醒有关当局制定管理计划以保护这些关键生态系统。