This study evaluates the interdependence between pricing and expectations. We investigated not only the ways in which traders’ thoughts determined asset prices, but also the feedback process from prices to expectations. In our laboratory market, subjects were asked to estimate the number of balls in a jar and trade an asset whose value was equal to that number. Our asset market, where transactions were eventually settled at the asset value, was like futures markets. The subjects alternately repeated the process of guessing and transaction. A double-auction was used to design our market. Our findings indicated a downward bias in the subjects’ estimates, which led to lower transaction prices, since the price converged to the equilibrium price that was determined by the median of estimates. The subjects’ experience in our laboratory markets had no systematic effect on the accuracy of estimates, but made them less heterogenous. Our subjects were apt to revise their estimates with reference to prices in a market. We examined the estimation revision process of the subjects using the partial adjustment model.

本研究评估了定价和预期之间的相互依赖关系。我们不仅研究了交易者的想法决定资产价格的方式，还研究了从价格到预期的反馈过程。在我们的实验室市场中，受试者被要求估计一个罐子里的球的数量，并交易一种价值等于这个数字的资产。我们的资产市场，交易最终以资产价值结算，就像期货市场一样。受试者交替重复猜测和交易的过程。双重拍卖被用来设计我们的市场。我们的研究结果表明，受试者的估计存在向下偏差，导致交易价格下降，因为价格收敛到由估计中位数确定的均衡价格。受试者在我们实验室市场的经验对估计的准确性没有系统性影响，但减少了它们的异质性。我们的研究对象倾向于参考市场价格来修正他们的估计。我们使用部分调整模型检查了受试者的估计修正过程。