This paper examines the prospects and challenges of transition from the current inefficient and highly polluting road transportation system in Nigeria to a highly efficient and environmentally friendly road transportation system. The study used time-series data from 1981 to 2019 within the framework of demand for gasoline and diesel in the structural time-series estimation model, where the concept of the asymmetric price increase and underlying energy demand trends were incorporated into the models. The findings of the study show that both gasoline and diesel are highly price inelastic, and the UEDT is generally stochastic but exhibits a positive trend in a large part of the estimation period. The conclusion and policy implication of the result suggests that governments should combine incentives and public enlightenment on the importance of energy efficiency as well as transport infrastructure improvements with gradual adjustments of domestic prices in the short run. However, in the long run, policy should be extended towards massive investments in the transformation and modernization of the whole transportation sector in line with sustainability, efficiency and environmentally friendly goals in the transportation system of the country.

中文翻译：

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尼日利亚向节能和清洁交通系统的过渡：来自交通燃料需求分析的证据

本文探讨了从尼日利亚目前低效和高污染的道路交通系统过渡到高效和环保的道路交通系统的前景和挑战。该研究在结构性时间序列估计模型中的汽油和柴油需求框架内使用了 1981 年至 2019 年的时间序列数据，其中不对称价格上涨和潜在能源需求趋势的概念被纳入模型。研究结果表明，汽油和柴油都具有高度的价格弹性，UEDT 总体上是随机的，但在估计期的大部分时间里呈现出积极的趋势。结果的结论和政策含义表明，政府应该将激励措施和公众对能源效率和交通基础设施改善的重要性的启发与短期内国内价格的逐步调整结合起来。然而，从长远来看，政策应该扩大到对整个交通部门的转型和现代化进行大规模投资，以符合国家交通系统的可持续性、效率和环保目标。