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Modelled realistic daily variation in low winter sea-ice concentration over the Barents Sea amplifies Asian cold events
Polar Research ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2022-11-01 , DOI: 10.33265/polar.v41.7834
Shengni Duan , Zhina Jiang , Min Wen

The boreal wintertime atmospheric responses, especially cold events over central Asia, to low sea-ice concentration (SIC) with and without realistic daily variation over the Barents Sea are explored with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4.0). The results show that the general atmospheric responses to approximately equal winter-mean Arctic sea-ice loss with a similar pattern but with climatological versus realistic daily variation are different. With the forcing of low SIC with climatological daily variation, Asian cold events become a little longer and stronger than in the control experiment; this mainly results from the enhancement of a 500-hPa Ural anticyclonic anomaly. However, the low SIC forcing that includes realistic daily variability greatly intensifies central Asian cold events and the cyclonic anomaly downstream of the Ural anticyclone. Further analysis reveals that Asian cold events are closely associated with Arctic deep warming at an intraseasonal time scale, which is also the strongest in the perturbed experiment forced by low SIC with realistic daily variation. This work provides a better understanding of the linkage between sea-ice variation over the Barents Sea and central Asian cold events, which may improve extreme weather prediction. It also implies that it is necessary to force air–sea coupling models and atmospheric models with realistic daily SIC in the study of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and mid-latitude cold events.



中文翻译:

巴伦支海冬季低海冰浓度模拟现实每日变化放大了亚洲寒冷事件

使用社区大气模型 4.0 版 (CAM4.0) 探索了北方冬季大气响应,特别是中亚的寒冷事件,对低海冰浓度 (SIC) 的影响,无论是否存在巴伦支海的实际每日变化。结果表明,对大致相等的冬季平均北极海冰损失的一般大气响应具有相似的模式,但气候与现实的每日变化是不同的。随着气候日变化的低SIC强迫,亚洲寒冷事件比对照实验变得更长更强;这主要是由于 500 hPa 乌拉尔反气旋异常增强所致。然而,包括实际日变化在内的低 SIC 强迫极大地加剧了中亚寒冷事件和乌拉尔反气旋下游的气旋异常。进一步的分析表明,亚洲寒冷事件与季节内时间尺度上的北极深层变暖密切相关,这也是由低 SIC 强迫的扰动实验中最强的,具有现实的每日变化。这项工作提供了对巴伦支海海冰变化与中亚寒冷事件之间联系的更好理解,这可能会改善极端天气预测。这也意味着在研究北极海冰与中纬度寒冷事件之间的关系时,有必要将海气耦合模式和大气模式与现实的每日 SIC 结合起来。进一步的分析表明,亚洲寒冷事件与季节内时间尺度上的北极深层变暖密切相关,这也是由低 SIC 强迫的扰动实验中最强的,具有现实的每日变化。这项工作提供了对巴伦支海海冰变化与中亚寒冷事件之间联系的更好理解,这可能会改善极端天气预测。这也意味着在研究北极海冰与中纬度寒冷事件之间的关系时,有必要将海气耦合模式和大气模式与现实的每日 SIC 结合起来。进一步的分析表明,亚洲寒冷事件与季节内时间尺度上的北极深层变暖密切相关,这也是由低 SIC 强迫的扰动实验中最强的,具有现实的每日变化。这项工作提供了对巴伦支海海冰变化与中亚寒冷事件之间联系的更好理解,这可能会改善极端天气预测。这也意味着在研究北极海冰与中纬度寒冷事件之间的关系时,有必要将海气耦合模式和大气模式与现实的每日 SIC 结合起来。这项工作提供了对巴伦支海海冰变化与中亚寒冷事件之间联系的更好理解,这可能会改善极端天气预测。这也意味着在研究北极海冰与中纬度寒冷事件之间的关系时,有必要将海气耦合模式和大气模式与现实的每日 SIC 结合起来。这项工作提供了对巴伦支海海冰变化与中亚寒冷事件之间联系的更好理解,这可能会改善极端天气预测。这也意味着在研究北极海冰与中纬度寒冷事件之间的关系时,有必要将海气耦合模式和大气模式与现实的每日 SIC 结合起来。

更新日期:2022-11-02
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