Innovation diffusion processes have attracted considerable research attention for their interdisciplinary character, which combines theories and concepts from disciplines such as mathematics, physics, statistics, social sciences, marketing, economics, and technological forecasting. The formal representation of innovation diffusion processes historically used epidemic models borrowed from biology, departing from the logistic equation, under the hypothesis that an innovation spreads in a social system through communication between people like an epidemic through contagion. This review integrates basic innovation diffusion models built upon the Bass model, primarily from the marketing literature, with a number of ideas from the epidemiological literature in order to offer a different perspective on innovation diffusion by focusing on critical diffusions, which are key for the progress of human communities. The article analyzes three key issues: barriers to diffusion, centrality of word-of-mouth, and the management of policy interventions to assist beneficial diffusions and to prevent harmful ones. We focus on deterministic innovation diffusion models described by ordinary differential equations.

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创新扩散过程：概念、模型和预测

创新扩散过程因其跨学科特征而引起了广泛的研究关注，它结合了数学、物理、统计学、社会科学、市场营销、经济学和技术预测等学科的理论和概念。创新扩散过程的正式表示历来使用借用生物学的流行病模型，与逻辑方程不同，假设创新通过人与人之间的交流在社会系统中传播，就像流行病通过传染一样。本综述将基于巴斯模型的基本创新扩散模型（主要来自营销文献）与流行病学文献中的一些想法相结合，以便通过关注关键扩散来提供创新扩散的不同视角，而关键扩散是进步的关键人类社会。本文分析了三个关键问题：传播障碍、口碑的中心性以及促进有益传播和防止有害传播的政策干预管理。我们专注于常微分方程描述的确定性创新扩散模型。