This paper hypothesizes that the structure of macroeconomic governance with its financial and non-financial dynamics is, among other things, a key determinant of economic performance, taking the case of the United States from 1952Q1 to 2018Q4. The paper tests its hypothesis by developing three modes of macroeconomic governance based on complementarities and a time-series model to be used for the empirical analysis of these modes and by using a linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration model. In so doing, the paper compares five periods between 1952Q1 and 2018Q4 using the same time-series model to illustrate how the changing structure of macroeconomic governance affects long-term economic performance over time. The paper reaches three conclusions. First, higher economic performance in 1952Q1–1968Q3 originates in, among other things, a systemic mode of macroeconomic governance. Second, lower economic performance in the three sub-periods between 1968Q4 and 2008Q2 is due to a fragmented mode of macroeconomic governance. Third, the sharp decline in economic performance in 2008Q3–2018Q4 originates in the outbreak and deepening of a structural trap due to long-run structural fragmentation.

本文以 1952 年第一季度至 2018 年第四季度的美国为例，假设宏观经济治理结构及其金融和非金融动态是经济绩效的关键决定因素。本文通过开发三种基于互补性的宏观经济治理模式和用于对这些模式进行实证分析的时间序列模型，以及使用线性和非线性自回归分布滞后协整模型来检验其假设。为此，本文使用相同的时间序列模型比较了 1952 年第一季度和 2018 年第四季度之间的五个时期，以说明宏观经济治理结构的变化如何影响长期经济表现。论文得出三个结论。首先，1952Q1-1968Q3较高的经济表现源于，除其他外，宏观经济治理的系统模式。其次，1968年四季度至2008年二季度三个子时期经济运行表现偏低，与宏观经济治理模式碎片化有关。第三，2008年三季度至2018年四季度经济运行的大幅下滑，源于长期结构碎片化导致的结构性陷阱的爆发和加深。