With the aim of overcoming the shortcomings of traditional approaches, in this paper, an exponential Weibull distribution for fitting the significant wave height data is proposed in order to calculate more accurately the sea-state parameter distribution tails and to extrapolate well. This proposal is applied in predicting the probability distribution tails of a measured ocean wave dataset, and its accuracy is clearly demonstrated. The proposal is subsequently utilised in combination with Monte Carlo sampling to form a new environmental contour method for deriving a 50 year contour line based on the aforementioned measured ocean wave dataset. The derived environmental contour line is compared with that predicted by using a traditional contour line approach. Additionally, the engineering significance of using a more reliable environmental contour line, such as the one derived using the proposed new method for predicting the long-term design force values for an ocean sustainable energy system is highlighted. In conclusion, the newly proposed environmental contour method is recommended to be used when predicting the extreme dynamic response values for the safe and successful design of ocean sustainable energy systems.

中文翻译：

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海洋可持续能源系统可靠性分析的新预测方法

为了克服传统方法的缺点，本文提出了一种指数威布尔分布来拟合有义波高数据，以便更准确地计算海况参数分布尾部并进行良好的外推。该建议应用于预测实测海浪数据集的概率分布尾部，并清楚地证明了其准确性。该提案随后与蒙特卡罗采样相结合，形成了一种新的环境等值线方法，用于根据上述测量的海浪数据集推导出 50 年等值线。将导出的环境轮廓线与使用传统轮廓线方法预测的环境轮廓线进行比较。此外，强调了使用更可靠的环境等高线的工程意义，例如使用所提出的新方法得出的用于预测海洋可持续能源系统的长期设计力值的环境等高线。总之，建议在预测极端动态响应值时使用新提出的环境等值线方法，以安全、成功地设计海洋可持续能源系统。