Recent trends in international migration reveal increasing migration outflows from Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This development is accompanied by a massive rise in youth unemployment and a major increase in the young population in this region. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of migration patterns and analyses the interacting effect of the unfavourable combination of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration decisions. Based on an assessment of bilateral migration flows from 19 MENA to 34 OECD countries between 1995 and 2020, we find that youth unemployment plays a significant role in explaining emigration flows from MENA countries. We also find that the migration-generating effect of youth unemployment is contingent upon demographic pressure in the youth cohorts and increases with an increasing number of youths.

中文翻译：

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何去何从？青年失业和人口压力对中东和北非地区移民的影响

国际移民的最新趋势表明，中东和北非 (MENA) 国家的移民流出量不断增加。这一发展伴随着该地区青年失业率的大幅上升和年轻人口的大幅增加。本文对移民模式进行了定量评估，并分析了青年失业和人口压力的不利组合对移民决策的相互作用影响。根据对 1995 年至 2020 年间从 19 个中东和北非国家流向 34 个经合组织国家的双边移民流的评估，我们发现青年失业在解释中东和北非国家的移民流中发挥着重要作用。