The study investigated the effect of public debts on macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and the exchange rate, using a panel of 25 sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies. The study contributed to extant studies by looking at the separate effect of domestic and foreign debts on inflation and exchange rate. We adopted a battery of econometric tools such as the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and the dynamic panel threshold model. The results show that foreign debts worsen the inflation rate and expose the economy to unanticipated movements in the exchange rate, whereas domestic debts help to reduce the inflationary pressure. The study also found a nonlinear relationship between public debts and macroeconomic indicators of inflation and exchange rates. This implies the further accumulation of foreign debt will heighten the inflation rate and expose the region to unanticipated movements in the exchange rate. The study recommends that governments and policymakers in SSA should ensure that foreign debts are sufficiently hedged against currency and interest rate risks to reduce the exposure of SSA economies to exchange rate risks. The study also recommends that governments adhere strictly to the maximum debt limit of 60.59% (of gross domestic product), otherwise inflation and exchange rates may worsen.

中文翻译：

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公共债务存量增加对宏观经济的影响：来自撒哈拉以南非洲经济体的证据

该研究使用由 25 个撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 经济体组成的小组调查公共债务对宏观经济指标（例如通货膨胀和汇率）的影响。该研究通过考察国内外债务对通货膨胀和汇率的单独影响，为现有研究做出了贡献。我们采用了一系列计量经济学工具，例如 Driscoll–Kraay 标准误差和动态面板阈值模型。结果表明，外债使通货膨胀率恶化，使经济暴露于汇率的意外变动，而内债有助于减轻通货膨胀压力。该研究还发现公共债务与通货膨胀和汇率的宏观经济指标之间存在非线性关系。这意味着外债的进一步积累将推高通货膨胀率，并使该地区面临汇率意外波动的风险。该研究建议 SSA 的政府和政策制定者应确保外债充分对冲货币和利率风险，以减少 SSA 经济体对汇率风险的敞口。该研究还建议政府严格遵守 60.59%（国内生产总值）的最高债务上限，否则通胀和汇率可能会恶化。