To what extent do arms embargoes curtail the embargoed state's ability to get conventional weapons? We argue that arms embargoes rarely prevent states from receiving conventional weapons, and are one of the few events that push states to switch their supplier base. Using a new dataset on the place of origin of conventional weapons, we provide a more full and complete picture of the effects of arms embargoes imposed by the United Nations and European Union. We show that middlemen, a previously obscured category of states who sell, but do not produce arms, are crucial to skirting embargoes. This article suggests that arms embargoes are a more complicated foreign policy tool than scholars have previously appreciated, and that policymakers need to be cautious in imposing them.

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武器禁运的意外后果

武器禁运在多大程度上限制了禁运国获得常规武器的能力？我们认为，武器禁运很少会阻止国家接收常规武器，并且是推动国家改变其供应商基础的少数事件之一。使用关于常规武器原产地的新数据集，我们可以更全面、更全面地了解联合国和欧盟实施的武器禁运的影响。我们表明，中间商是以前不为人知的一类销售但不生产武器的国家，对于规避禁运至关重要。这篇文章表明，武器禁运是一种比学者们之前认为的更为复杂的外交政策工具，政策制定者在实施它们时需要谨慎。