The many varieties of ambiguity shape the prospects in lower-income countries to establish viable poverty-alleviation programs, appropriately target the poor, and reduce deprivations of families applying for or participating in such programs. Ambiguity can be both a problem and an asset, potentially serving pro-poor purposes but often manipulable to drain benefits away from the poor. The distinctive functions of the decision process, as outlined in the classic policy sciences framework, are applied to cash transfers, pro-poor price subsidies, guaranteed unconditional employment, affirmative action, and resource access for the poor. The guidance for adapting these programs depends heavily on the appraisal function. This article contributes both the diagnosis of how ambiguity can undermine or contribute to the soundness of the poverty-alleviation program selection processes, and how to address these issues. It also demonstrates the utility of the classic policy sciences framework in identifying an extremely broad range of relevant considerations.

多种多样的不确定性塑造了低收入国家建立可行的扶贫计划、适当针对穷人并减少申请或参与此类计划的家庭的剥夺的前景。模糊性既可以是问题，也可以是资产，可能服务于有利于穷人的目的，但通常可以被操纵以从穷人那里榨取利益。正如经典政策科学框架所概述的，决策过程的独特功能适用于现金转移、有利于穷人的价格补贴、有保障的无条件就业、平权行动和穷人的资源获取。调整这些程序的指导在很大程度上取决于评估功能。本文有助于诊断模糊性如何破坏或促进扶贫项目选择过程的健全性，以及如何解决这些问题。它还展示了经典政策科学框架在确定极其广泛的相关考虑因素方面的效用。