Mortgage debt is financially burdensome for many older homeowners in the United States. As people age, declining health can bring about increased healthcare costs. Focusing on homeowners aged 50 and older in the U.S., we investigate two research questions: (1) To what extent does a heath shock affect the likelihood of paying off a mortgage voluntarily or involuntarily? and (2) how long does a health shock delay the time it takes to pay off a mortgage? We used eight biannual waves (2004–2018) of the Health and Retirement Study containing 11,772 borrowers to build survival regression models. Results showed that a health shock reduced the likelihood of voluntary payoff by 12%, while it increased the probability of involuntary payoff by 18%. A health shock delayed voluntary and involuntary payoffs for 30 and 21 months, respectively. We discuss tax deduction and HELOCs as strategies to reduce older homeowners' mortgage strain.

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50 岁以上美国房主的健康冲击和抵押贷款债务偿还：生存分析

对于美国许多年长的房主来说，抵押贷款债务在经济上是沉重的负担。随着人们年龄的增长，健康状况下降会导致医疗保健成本增加。我们关注美国 50 岁及以上的房主，调查两个研究问题：(1) 健康冲击在多大程度上影响自愿或非自愿还清抵押贷款的可能性？(2) 健康冲击会延迟还清抵押贷款的时间多长时间？我们使用包含 11,772 名借款人的健康和退休研究的八次半年波（2004-2018 年）来建立生存回归模型。结果表明，健康冲击使自愿还款的可能性降低了 12%，同时使非自愿还款的可能性增加了 18%。健康冲击分别延迟了 30 个月和 21 个月的自愿和非自愿支付。