We address the organization of criminal justice forecasting and implications for its use in criminal justice policymaking. We argue that the use of forecasting is relatively widespread in criminal justice agency settings, but it is used primarily to inform decision-making and practice rather than to formulate and test new policy proposals. Using predictive policing and prison population forecasting as our main examples of the range of forecasting methods adopted in criminal justice practice, we describe their uses, how their use is organized, and the implications of the organizational arrangements for the transparent, reviewable, and consensual use of forecasting. We point out that both prison population forecasting and predictive policing have long histories that have led to advances in methodology. Prison population forecasting has generally become embedded in budget decision-making processes that contribute to greater transparency in method and applications. Predictive policing has been less transparent in method and use, partly because the methods are more complicated and rely on larger amounts of data, but it generally has not be used in ways to foster community engagement and build public support. Concerns about the legitimacy of its use persist.

我们讨论刑事司法预测的组织及其在刑事司法决策中的应用。我们认为，预测的使用在刑事司法机构环境中相对普遍，但它主要用于为决策和实践提供信息，而不是用于制定和测试新的政策提案。使用预测性警务和监狱人口预测作为我们在刑事司法实践中采用的预测方法范围的主要例子，我们描述了它们的用途、它们的使用是如何组织的，以及组织安排对透明、可审查和协商一致使用的影响的预测。我们指出，监狱人口预测和预测性警务都有悠久的历史，导致了方法的进步。监狱人口预测通常已嵌入预算决策过程中，有助于提高方法和应用的透明度。预测性警务在方法和使用方面一直不太透明，部分原因是这些方法更复杂并且依赖大量数据，但它通常没有被用于促进社区参与和建立公众支持。对其使用合法性的担忧依然存在。