ABSTRACT

Rejecting economic gradualism, Rosenstein-Rodan, back in 1943 advocated huge government-led initial infrastructure investment or ‘Big-Push Approach’ to achieve big economic growth. Welfare economists like Arthur Lewis and Rugnar Nursk expanded the proposition through their ‘Dual Sector Model’ and ‘Balanced Growth Approach’ converting the whole idea as a body of ‘Modernisation Theories’ for economic growth and development. John Maynard Keynes endorsed the idea too through his ‘Mixed Economy Growth Model’ prescription. Seaports are India’s trade and geo-economic gateways. India meanwhile has launched a very ambitious maritime modernization program called ‘Sagarmala 2015–2035’ to modernize Indian Seaports and develop port-led industrialization similar to Rodan’s Big Push approach. Seaports and their vessel traffic pattern provide critical insight into national maritime geo-economic outreach. In the background of India’s Sagarmala maritime modernization experience and similar lessons from the neighborhood, using Seaports vessel traffic as a variable, this article analyzes India’s maritime geo-economic comparative outreach and challenges.

摘要

罗森斯坦-罗丹早在 1943 年就拒绝经济渐进主义，主张政府主导的巨额初始基础设施投资或“大推动方法”，以实现经济大幅增长。阿瑟·刘易斯和鲁格纳·努尔斯克等福利经济学家通过他们的“双部门模型”和“平衡增长方法”扩展了这一命题，将整个想法转变为经济增长和发展的“现代化理论”体系。约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯也通过他的“混合经济增长模型”处方认可了这一想法。海港是印度的贸易和地缘经济门户。与此同时，印度启动了一项雄心勃勃的海洋现代化计划，名为“萨加马拉2015-2035”，旨在实现印度海港的现代化，并发展港口主导的工业化，类似于罗丹的大推动方法。海港及其船舶交通模式为国家海洋地缘经济拓展提供了重要的见解。本文以印度萨加马拉海洋现代化的经验和周边国家的类似教训为背景，以海港船舶交通量为变量，分析印度海洋地缘经济的比较延伸和挑战。