In this article we answer a fundamental concern of product development management: How to best respond to uncertainty, unforeseeable uncertainty, and complexity in product development? To answer this question we apply reliability analysis, from behavioral economics, to product development and build a new model, showing that successful frameworks, practices, tools, and decision-making succeed by reducing the impact of decision errors. Our model contributes seven practical principles for managing action flexibility in product development. By applying these principles, product development managers can successfully exploit many existing practices, improve decision-making effectiveness, and leverage action flexibility.

在本文中，我们回答了产品开发管理的一个基本问题：如何最好地应对产品开发中的不确定性、不可预见的不确定性和复杂性？为了回答这个问题，我们将行为经济学的可靠性分析应用于产品开发并构建了一个新模型，表明成功的框架、实践、工具和决策通过减少决策错误的影响而取得成功。我们的模型为管理产品开发中的行动灵活性提供了七项实用原则。通过应用这些原则，产品开发经理可以成功地利用许多现有实践、提高决策制定效率并利用行动灵活性。