This paper examines two types of preference shocks, shocks to the disutility of working and to the demand for goods relative to services, in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. Existing literature has primarily focused on productivity and monetary shocks as driving processes. The contribution of this paper is to construct model-based processes for both types of preference shocks using United States data over 1948–2022 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics and investigate the resulting dynamics in the New Keynesian framework. Constructing historical processes for the shocks provides context for examining the shifts that occurred during the coronavirus pandemic. Both preference shocks show movements of unprecedented magnitude that coincide with the pandemic. In the model, the relative demand shock leads to opposite movements in inflation and labor between the two sectors, while the shock to labor disutility is stagflationary, with inflation rising and output decreasing. A pandemic-motivated experiment with simultaneous large shocks to both labor disutility and relative goods demand generates divergences between the sectors in inflation and labor, but higher inflation and reduced output overall. This demonstrates that preference shocks may be useful for understanding the pandemic-era economy and suggests that they deserve more attention from economists and policymakers.

本文在其他标准的新凯恩斯主义模型中研究了两种类型的偏好冲击，即对工作负效用的冲击和对商品相对于服务的需求的冲击。现有文献主要关注生产力和货币冲击作为驱动过程。本文的贡献是使用来自经济分析局和劳工统计局的 1948-2022 年美国数据为两种类型的偏好冲击构建基于模型的过程，并在新凯恩斯主义框架中研究由此产生的动态。构建冲击的历史过程为检查冠状病毒大流行期间发生的变化提供了背景。两次偏好冲击都显示出与大流行同时发生的前所未有的幅度变化。在模型中，相对需求冲击导致两个部门之间通货膨胀和劳动力的相反运动，而对劳动力负效用的冲击是滞胀性的，通货膨胀上升而产出下降。一项由大流行病引发的实验同时对劳动力二次效用和相关商品需求造成巨大冲击，导致通货膨胀和劳动力部门之间出现差异，但通货膨胀率上升，总体产出下降。这表明偏好冲击可能有助于理解大流行时期的经济，并表明它们值得经济学家和政策制定者更多关注。一项由大流行病引发的实验同时对劳动力二次效用和相关商品需求造成巨大冲击，导致通货膨胀和劳动力部门之间出现差异，但通货膨胀率上升，总体产出下降。这表明偏好冲击可能有助于理解大流行时期的经济，并表明它们值得经济学家和政策制定者更多关注。一项由大流行病引发的实验同时对劳动力二次效用和相关商品需求造成巨大冲击，导致通货膨胀和劳动力部门之间出现差异，但通货膨胀率上升，总体产出下降。这表明偏好冲击可能有助于理解大流行时期的经济，并表明它们值得经济学家和政策制定者更多关注。