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In Search of the "Right" Integration Effects: From Complex to Simple Modeling
Atlantic Economic Journal Pub Date : 2022-12-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s11293-022-09751-8
Fritz Breuss

Recently, studies with different methods (computable general equilibrium models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, structural gravity equations) evaluated the European Union’s Single Market. The problem with all these studies is that they use complex models with datasets that are not always replicable. This paper demonstrates that even a simple model of the European Union can capture the most important effects of European economic integration: the European Union’s Single Market, the introduction of the Euro, and the following European Union enlargements. A simple European Union model, built with the publicly available program, EViews, serves this purpose. The dataset is also freely available from the European Commission. This makes the model results replicable. Evaluation of Austrian membership in the European Union is in the foreground of the analysis with the simple European Union model, followed by the next steps of integration, such as the introduction of the Euro and the big European Union enlargements. However, this prototype model is also able to estimate the integration effects of other European Union member states.



中文翻译:

寻找“正确”的集成效果:从复杂到简单的建模

最近,用不同方法(可计算一般均衡模型、动态随机一般均衡模型、结构引力方程)的研究评估了欧盟的单一市场。所有这些研究的问题在于,它们使用复杂的模型和并不总是可复制的数据集。本文证明,即使是一个简单的欧盟模型也能捕捉到欧洲经济一体化最重要的影响:欧盟的单一市场、欧元的引入以及随后的欧盟扩大。使用公开程序 EViews 构建的简单欧盟模型可用于此目的。该数据集也可从欧盟委员会免费获得。这使得模型结果可复制。评估奥地利在欧盟的成员身份是使用简单的欧盟模型进行分析的前景,然后是下一步的一体化,例如引入欧元和扩大欧盟规模。然而,这个原型模型也能够估计其他欧盟成员国的一体化效果。

更新日期:2022-12-29
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