Changes in climate patterns are the main challenges being faced by the coffee and cocoa production systems, one of the key sources of livelihood for farmers in Togo’s humid dense forests zone, also known as “Togo ecological zone IV”. The objective of this study was to analyze the climatic vulnerability of coffee-cocoa agroforestry systems (CCAFS) in Togo ecological zone IV both ongoing (last 40 years 1980–2019) and the incoming decades (by 2050) considering climate forecast under AR6 socioeconomic pathways. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) approach with the Mann–Kendall & Sen’s tests and the MaxEnt tool were used to assess the drought condition and the potential impacts on CCAFS suitability in the study area. The results show instability in rainfall series with a non-significant progressive trend in the area during the past four decades, while a significant increase in temperature was observed. Beyond 2050, suitable areas for coffee and cocoa species will drift to the pic mountainous part. Thus, respectively 51.91 and 54.50% of currently suitable areas for the two species, will be lost under the future climate scenario SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. These losses are mainly due to the reduction of precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) of the year. Drought is therefore revealed as the main limiting climatic factor for coffee and cocoa in Togo. The increasing drought intensity in the future is a source of high vulnerability of CCAFS as well as the local farmers’ livelihoods.

中文翻译：

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多哥西南部（西非）亚湿润山区生态系统中咖啡-可可农业系统的气候脆弱性

气候模式的变化是咖啡和可可生产系统面临的主要挑战，咖啡和可可生产系统是多哥潮湿茂密森林地区（也称为“多哥生态区 IV”）农民的主要生计来源之一。本研究的目的是分析多哥生态区 IV 中咖啡-可可农林业系统 (CCAFS) 目前（过去 40 年，1980-2019 年）和未来几十年（到 2050 年）的气候脆弱性，同时考虑 AR6 社会经济路径下的气候预测. 标准化降水指数 (SPI) 方法与 Mann–Kendall & Sen 的测试和 MaxEnt 工具用于评估干旱条件和对研究区域 CCAFS 适宜性的潜在影响。结果表明，在过去四十年中，该地区的降雨序列不稳定，没有显着的渐进趋势，同时观测到温度显着升高。2050 年以后，适合种植咖啡和可可树种的地区将漂移到 pic 山区。因此，在未来气候情景 SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5 下，分别有 51.91% 和 54.50% 的当前适合这两个物种的区域消失。这些损失主要是由于最干月（Bio14）降水量减少、最干季（Bio17）降水量减少和最冷季（Bio19）降水量减少所致。因此，干旱被揭示为多哥咖啡和可可的主要限制气候因素。