ABSTRACT

Over 2003–2021, the pasture harvested on South African pasture-based dairy farms increased markedly. This increased production and consumption of pasture has helped to reduce the cost of producing milk in South Africa relative to dairying in other countries and delivered comparatively high levels of profit. National milk production has grown steadily. Over this same time, pasture as a proportion of the total diet of dairy herds has decreased significantly: supplements make up the major share of the diet. This change to dairy herd diets puts upward pressure on the average cost of feeding the herd and on the cost of production. The focus of this paper is on whether dairy farmers would be better off if they significantly increased the proportion of pasture in the total diet of their herds and relied less on supplementary feed. It is shown that progressively increasing the pasture component and proportion in the diet of dairy herds, from an industry average of 41% to 57%, could increase profit. Results were a 26% increase in profit (return on capital), a 59% increase in profit margin per litre, and a 7% decrease in cost of production per litre. If this change in production system to increased use of pasture and less use of supplementary feeds was replicated across the entire South African pasture-based dairy industry, farmers in the industry would be significantly more profitable and their businesses would be more resilient than under the current feeding regimes that are used.

摘要

2003 年至 2021 年间，南非牧场奶牛场收获的牧场显着增加。牧草产量和消费量的增加有助于降低南非相对于其他国家乳制品生产的牛奶生产成本，并带来相对较高的利润水平。全国牛奶产量稳步增长。与此同时，牧草占奶牛群总饮食的比例显着下降：补充剂占饮食的主要部分。奶牛群饮食的这种变化给饲养牛群的平均成本和生产成本带来了上行压力。本文的重点是如果奶农显着增加牧草在其畜群总饮食中的比例并减少对补充饲料的依赖，他们的生活是否会更好。结果表明，逐步增加奶牛群饮食中的牧草成分和比例，从行业平均水平的 41% 增加到 57%，可以增加利润。结果是利润（资本回报率）增加了 26%，每升利润率增加了 59%，每升生产成本降低了 7%。如果这种增加牧场使用和减少补充饲料使用的生产系统变化在整个南非以牧场为基础的乳制品行业得到复制，该行业的农民将获得更高的利润，他们的业务将比目前的情况更具弹性使用的喂养制度。结果是利润（资本回报率）增加了 26%，每升利润率增加了 59%，每升生产成本降低了 7%。如果这种增加牧场使用和减少补充饲料使用的生产系统变化在整个南非以牧场为基础的乳制品行业得到复制，该行业的农民将获得更高的利润，他们的业务将比目前的情况更具弹性使用的喂养制度。结果是利润（资本回报率）增加了 26%，每升利润率增加了 59%，每升生产成本降低了 7%。如果这种增加牧场使用和减少补充饲料使用的生产系统变化在整个南非以牧场为基础的乳制品行业得到复制，该行业的农民将获得更高的利润，他们的业务将比目前的情况更具弹性使用的喂养制度。