ABSTRACT

What sort of military assistance has Ukraine received to date from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members since 2014? What has driven NATO allies’ decisions to provide military assistance to Ukraine? This essay addresses both questions. It offers a preliminary examination of how strategic, economic, and risk considerations might have shaped NATO members’ decisions regarding arms transfers to Ukraine, a country that remains outside of the Alliance but nevertheless is an Enhanced Opportunities Partner. Using both a qualitative analysis of post-2014 assistance and a purpose-built dataset combining military aid to Ukraine since late January 2022, we find that prior strategic preparation in the form of investments in military readiness and infrastructure is strongly associated with military aid to Ukraine. Economic considerations and prominent risk factors such as fossil fuel dependency thus far have not.

摘要

自 2014 年以来，乌克兰迄今为止从北大西洋公约组织 (NATO) 成员国那里获得了哪些军事援助？是什么促使北约盟国决定向乌克兰提供军事援助？这篇文章解决了这两个问题。它初步审视了战略、经济和风险考虑如何影响北约成员国关于向乌克兰转让武器的决定，乌克兰仍处于联盟之外，但仍然是一个增强机会的合作伙伴。通过对 2014 年后援助的定性分析和自 2022 年 1 月下旬以来对乌克兰军事援助的专门构建数据集，我们发现，以军事准备和基础设施投资形式进行的事先战略准备与对乌克兰的军事援助密切相关.