Using official communiqués about fiscal policy, we develop a fiscal sentiment indicator, and we verify the reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment. This analysis is relevant to inflation targeting (IT) countries because transparency and communication can influence expectations. The results suggest that a more optimistic fiscal sentiment reduces disagreements in inflation expectations. Estimates show that, for higher disagreements in inflation expectations at 12-month maturity, an optimistic fiscal sentiment can reduce the disagreement more sharply. In turn, the fiscal sentiment effect on the disagreement for the 48-month maturity is stronger the smaller the disagreement is. The results allow us to outline the following policy recommendations. First, an optimistic fiscal environment is important in the task of guiding inflation expectations and reducing inflation uncertainty. Second, fiscal communication is an important tool for the expectations formation process, and therefore it must be carefully managed to help in the task of forward guidance of inflation expectations, being important for the IT regime. Third, both fiscal credibility and monetary policy credibility are important for the expectations formation process, particularly for the reduction of inflation uncertainty, representing aspects that must be preserved in countries that adopt the IT regime.

中文翻译：

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通胀预期分歧对从官方公报信息中获得的财政情绪的反应

利用有关财政政策的官方公报，我们制定了财政情绪指标，并验证了通胀预期分歧对财政情绪的反应。该分析与通胀目标制 (IT) 国家相关，因为透明度和沟通会影响预期。结果表明，更加乐观的财政情绪减少了通胀预期的分歧。估计显示，对于12个月到期的通胀预期分歧较大的情况，乐观的财政情绪可以更大幅度地减少分歧。反过来，财政情绪对 48 个月期限分歧的影响越强，分歧越小。结果使我们能够概述以下政策建议。首先，乐观的财政环境对于引导通胀预期、降低通胀不确定性具有重要作用。其次，财政沟通是预期形成过程的重要工具，因此必须对其进行精心管理，以帮助完成通胀预期的前瞻指导任务，这对于 IT 制度非常重要。第三，财政可信度和货币政策可信度对于预期形成过程非常重要，特别是对于减少通胀不确定性而言，这是采用信息技术制度的国家必须保留的方面。