This study evaluates the link between local violence and the stability of women’s first co-residential unions in Mexico by exploiting the drastic increase in homicide rates caused by the Mexican War on Drugs in December 2006. We use event history analysis and individual union histories collected by a national survey in 2009 to assess whether increasing homicide rates in the previous 2 years relates to the dissolution of marital and cohabiting unions, and to transitions to marriage among cohabitors. Cox models show that a recent spike in violence is associated with a higher risk of dissolution for first coresidential unions among less educated women. Competing-risks Cox models further show that for first cohabiting unions among the less educated, exposure to increasing violence is not only associated with a higher risk of dissolution, but also with a higher risk of transitioning to marriage. In contrast, recent spikes in violence were not significantly associated with union transitions for more educated women. This suggests that increasing local violence may be pushing disadvantaged women in coresidential unions to accelerate significant transitions in their family trajectories, by either dissolving their relationships, or getting married to their cohabiting partner, which plausibly reflects underlying differences in union quality. By evaluating the link between local criminal violence and union stability, our findings contribute to understanding how disadvantaged families cope with disruptions to their social environments.

中文翻译：

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墨西哥的社区暴力与婚姻和同居的稳定性

本研究利用 2006 年 12 月墨西哥禁毒战争导致的凶杀率急剧上升，评估了当地暴力与墨西哥女性首次同居结合的稳定性之间的联系。我们使用了事件历史分析和由2009 年的一项全国调查，旨在评估过去 2 年凶杀率的上升是否与婚姻和同居关系的解散以及同居者之间的婚姻过渡有关。考克斯模型表明，最近暴力事件的激增与受教育程度较低的女性的第一次同居工会解散的风险更高有关。竞争风险考克斯模型进一步表明，对于受教育程度较低的人首次同居，暴露于日益增加的暴力不仅与更高的解散风险相关，但也有更高的过渡到婚姻的风险。相比之下，最近暴力事件的激增与受教育程度更高的女性的工会过渡没有显着关联。这表明，不断增加的地方暴力可能会促使同居工会中的弱势女性加速家庭轨迹的重大转变，要么解除她们的关系，要么与同居伴侣结婚，这似乎反映了工会质量的潜在差异。通过评估当地犯罪暴力与工会稳定性之间的联系，我们的研究结果有助于了解弱势家庭如何应对社会环境的破坏。最近暴力事件的激增与受过更多教育的妇女的工会过渡没有显着关联。这表明，不断增加的地方暴力可能会促使同居工会中的弱势女性加速家庭轨迹的重大转变，要么解除她们的关系，要么与同居伴侣结婚，这似乎反映了工会质量的潜在差异。通过评估当地犯罪暴力与工会稳定性之间的联系，我们的研究结果有助于了解弱势家庭如何应对社会环境的破坏。最近暴力事件的激增与受过更多教育的妇女的工会过渡没有显着关联。这表明，不断增加的地方暴力可能会促使同居工会中的弱势女性加速家庭轨迹的重大转变，要么解除她们的关系，要么与同居伴侣结婚，这似乎反映了工会质量的潜在差异。通过评估当地犯罪暴力与工会稳定性之间的联系，我们的研究结果有助于了解弱势家庭如何应对社会环境的破坏。或与他们的同居伴侣结婚，这似乎反映了工会质量的潜在差异。通过评估当地犯罪暴力与工会稳定性之间的联系，我们的研究结果有助于了解弱势家庭如何应对社会环境的破坏。或与他们的同居伴侣结婚，这似乎反映了工会质量的潜在差异。通过评估当地犯罪暴力与工会稳定性之间的联系，我们的研究结果有助于了解弱势家庭如何应对社会环境的破坏。