ABSTRACT

The Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a return to the “old” (imperial, colonial) wars aimed at seizing the neighboring state’s territories and resources, and the violent assimilation of its population. Russia has changed its objective from gaining political leverage over Ukraine to enlarging its territorial control, based on the geostrategic and geo-economic value of the land. This is because Russia was no longer able to employ its soft power, with a gray-zone conflict effectively keeping Ukraine in its geopolitical orbit. Drawing on fieldwork, process tracing, and document analysis, we explain the de-modernization of the political regime and the economies of previously and newly occupied territories of Ukraine, by the export of Russian institutions and the employment of tactics of societal destabilization.

摘要

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰标志着旨在夺取邻国领土和资源以及暴力同化其人口的“旧”（帝国、殖民地）战争的回归。俄罗斯已经根据土地的地缘战略和地缘经济价值，将其目标从获得对乌克兰的政治影响力转变为扩大其领土控制。这是因为俄罗斯不再能够运用其软实力，灰色地带冲突有效地将乌克兰保持在其地缘政治轨道上。借助实地考察、过程追踪和文件分析，我们通过俄罗斯机构的输出和社会不稳定策略的运用，解释了乌克兰先前和新占领领土的政治制度和经济的去现代化。